近期鋼材坯料和期貨價格同漲,但未能帶動現貨價格,期現價差縮減至平水。冬儲行情令鋼材社會庫存大幅上漲,部分現貨企業對供給側改革預期較為樂觀,積極囤貨。春節將近,流通貿易商基本表現平穩,節前螺紋行情將受到需求淡季的影響,加上前期期貨貼水縮減,期貨價格恐將進一步下跌。
Recent steel billet and futures prices rose, but failed to drive spot prices, the current price difference reduced to flat water. Winter market make steel inventories rose sharply, part of the spot enterprises are more optimistic about the expected supply side reforms, the active stockpile. Spring Festival approaching, the circulation of traders basically stable performance, the market will be affected by the pre holiday market demand off-season, coupled with pre futures discount reduction, futures prices will further decline.
近期供給側改革依然是影響市場供給的主要驅動力。發改委與工信部聯合發布《關于運用價格手段促進鋼鐵行業供給側結構性改革有關事項的通知》,通知顯示淘汰類由每千瓦時加價0.3元提高至每千瓦時加價0.5元;限制類繼續維持每千瓦時加價0.1元;未按期完成化解過剩產能實施方案中,有化解任務的鋼鐵企業電價參照淘汰類每千瓦時加價0.5元執行。本輪差別化電價調整將推高落后產能的生產成本,加速落后產能的淘汰。
Recent supply side reform is still the main driving force affecting the market supply. Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of industry jointly issued the "notice" on the promotion of matters related to the steel industry supply side structural reform by means of price, notice out of class by 0.3 yuan per kilowatt hour increase to 0.5 yuan per kilowatt hour increase; restrictions continue to increase 0.1 yuan per kilowatt hour; fails to complete the implementation plan to resolve the overcapacity in the iron and steel enterprises have to resolve the price reference task out of class 0.5 yuan per kilowatt hour increase execution. The current round of differential tariff adjustment will push up production costs of backward production capacity, and accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity.
據統計,2016年12月下旬重點鋼企粗鋼日均產量166.38萬噸,環比上一旬增加0.82萬噸,增幅0.49%。據此估算,2017年1月上旬全國粗鋼日均產量約為218萬噸,旬環比增加0.72萬噸,增幅0.33%。節前鋼鐵產量進一步減產動力不足,據我的鋼鐵網監測,近期全國163家鋼廠高爐產能利用率80.66%,較前期環比略增0.31%,163家鋼廠高爐開工率72.38%,環比增0.14%,同比基本持平,降幅有限。鋼廠盈利率增至71.17%,環比繼續增加,主要源于近期爐料現貨價格并未跟隨鋼價上漲,加上“地條鋼清理”利好消息的刺激,鋼材現貨價格略有走高。
According to statistics, in late December 2016, key steel enterprises average daily output of 1 million 663 thousand and 800 tons of steel, an increase of 8 thousand and 200 tons over the previous month, an increase of 0.49%. According to this estimate, the average daily output of crude steel in China was about 2 million 180 thousand tons in January 2017 and 7 thousand and 200 tons in the past ten months, an increase of 0.33%. Before the steel production further cuts the power shortage, according to my steel net monitoring, the recent national steel 163 blast furnace production capacity utilization rate of 80.66%, compared with the previous a slight increase of 0.31% QoQ, 163 steel blast furnace operating rate of 72.38%, an increase of 0.14%, an essentially flat, limited decline. Mills profit rate increased to 71.17%, continued to increase, mainly due to the recent spot prices did not follow the burden of rising steel prices, coupled with the "clean steel" good news, spot steel prices slightly higher.
爐料方面,鐵礦石港口庫存再創歷史新高,受到國際礦商出口高峰以及霧霾天氣導致華北、華東地區疏港量下滑,截至1月13日,全國41個港口鐵礦石庫存環比上漲167萬噸至11899萬噸。目前多數鋼廠鐵礦石庫存水平較高,節前采購意愿一般。焦炭方面,鋼廠庫存累積、產量下滑導致需求走弱,加上焦煤供給上升,現貨價格繼續下調。
Charge, iron ore port stocks hit a record high, by the international miners and the haze weather caused the peak export volume in North China and East China decline, as of January 13th, the 41 iron ore port stocks rose 1 million 670 thousand to 118 million 990 thousand tons. At present, the majority of steel mills, iron ore inventory levels higher, general willingness to purchase before the holiday. Coke, steel stocks accumulated, production decline led to weaker demand, coupled with coking coal supply rise, spot prices continue to decline.
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Our company will abide by the principle of commercial integrity and equality and mutual benefit, and provide the best service for our customers, and create more perfect works. We are willing to work together with friends from all walks of life to create prosperity.